Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeeb2481db1808b69dfd249aca4b4a55f0ff4fe34dab097ffe6309518466d5e1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 15c | 999.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 571.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 19c | 462.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 24c | 447.56$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 80c | 286.07$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 281.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 248.45$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 26c | 237.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 213.27$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5571backed Yes | 19c | 179.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6862backed Yes | 15c | 177.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 148.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 78c | 148.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed Yes | 16c | 139.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 9c | 126.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 77c | 125.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 27c | 119.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 17c | 102.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 20c | 97.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 19c | 96.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 94.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes | 20c | 89.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…4186backed Yes | 17c | 83.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 80.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 76c | 74.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 22c | 68.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…f773backed Yes | 22c | 68.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 61.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 18c | 60.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 79c | 59.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 57.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 24c | 49.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…65e6backed Yes | 22c | 47.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 78c | 44.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes | 24c | 42.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 26c | 39.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8a…3430backed No | 79c | 39.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 35.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 79c | 34.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 78c | 29.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 77c | 28.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 27.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 79c | 27.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 27.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 77c | 20.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.