Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b3d3755ef7c097d2c16aa41c9453119d95dd3998867788dc798a57574a56dcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 24c | 1,393$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6836…f2cdbacked Yes | 61c | 1,355$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…ced7backed No | 39c | 1,300$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 77c | 561.88$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.21 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 477.73$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.81 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 78c | 249.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 30c | 221.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 28c | 196.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.74 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 38c | 165.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 30c | 127.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked No | 75c | 126.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed No | 65c | 96.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e4…0618backed No | 78c | 90.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 38c | 63.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 26c | 43.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…a37abacked No | 33c | 42.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Yes | 67c | 42.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 36c | 36.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 78c | 35.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.