Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57e2eca5d3b7397c089f5ec081b387e8c4337675b51786b237e41946eff3ee86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 43c | 2,149$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 948.28$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 750.87$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.58 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 57c | 681.11$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.23 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 57c | 460.9$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.45 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 426.84$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.18 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 80c | 233.57$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…eb74backed Under | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5384backed Under | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d5…44cabacked Under | 47c | 216$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6128…a535backed Over | 53c | 215.02$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…0889backed Under | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…c481backed Over | 53c | 214.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e1…0458backed Over | 53c | 212.78$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bb…21f1backed Over | 53c | 212.66$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…3e10backed Over | 53c | 212.22$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf0…b2babacked Under | 47c | 210$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…069abacked Over | 53c | 206.6$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f1…f668backed Over | 53c | 205.34$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1824…892ebacked Under | 47c | 205$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…0f3bbacked Over | 53c | 203.4$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…0f01backed Under | 47c | 202$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab76…6b27backed Under | 47c | 197$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…6a64backed Over | 53c | 197$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…080bbacked Under | 47c | 195$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…d0bdbacked Under | 47c | 193.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1a…7d5cbacked Over | 53c | 193.88$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 48c | 190.6$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 58c | 189.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 182.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6836…f2cdbacked Over | 58c | 170$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 52c | 141.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 50c | 127$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 50c | 127$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 43c | 126.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 42c | 121.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 48c | 103.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfc…7f6bbacked Under | 15c | 94.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 42c | 84.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Under | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.42per pick | 21cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 42c | 65.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 53c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 48c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 52c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…ced7backed Over | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 58c | 32.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 57c | 28.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…8db8backed Over | 58c | 26.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 43c | 25.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 58c | 22.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Over | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbe…1b08backed Over | 58c | 21.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.