Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9450778816e993e45b93628b25f48ad0192d662e4d90ecdce6a1e236746a859c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33bb…98b3backed Over | 31c | 1,631$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +226.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 32c | 999.95$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 32c | 768.19$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.55 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 696.58$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.83 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 647.91$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.13 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Under | 7c | 571$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 40c | 548$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.8 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 68c | 453.64$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 69c | 434.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 71c | 400$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 44c | 379.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 25c | 375$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 65c | 309.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Under | 72c | 291.71$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 284$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.45 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Under | 58c | 280.89$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 18c | 237$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 31c | 227$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.7 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 74c | 201.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.47 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 30c | 169$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 70c | 160.84$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 75c | 149$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 74c | 136.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 75c | 113$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 75c | 113$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 106.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 20c | 104.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 34c | 99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 68c | 92.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 68c | 92.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 29c | 88.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 68c | 85.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 68c | 85.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 68c | 85.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 75c | 78.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 46c | 69.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 74c | 67.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 41c | 67.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Under | 66c | 40.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.