NFL · resolved market
Spread: LV (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b49f3756c6b758b6de3855d64fbc546e17ae80ac12fd13fa3a270a42852bc10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ARIof LV, ARI
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02b5…2ff8backed ARI | 55c | 546.97$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed LV | 44c | 359.35$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.75 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed ARI | 54c | 357.23$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked LV | 46c | 357.23$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.33 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked LV | 45c | 255.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed ARI | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed ARI | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed ARI | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed LV | 46c | 34.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked LV | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: LV (-3.5)this page
- ARI vs. LV: O/U 39.5Over won
- ARI vs. LV: O/U 40.5Over won
- ARI vs. LV: O/U 41.5Under won
- ARI vs. LV: O/U 42.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. RaidersCardinals won
- Cardinals vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- Spread: LV (-1.5)ARI won
- Spread: LV (-2.5)ARI won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.