NFL · resolved market
ARI vs. LV: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aae62601fd9dfe1a8847d1a3a9baedc360dc04a35b642b88353f8243b2a7ea2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 8c | 1,957$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 51c | 1,219$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.34 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 771.25$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.34 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 66c | 577.24$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.39 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…9ba9backed Over | 67c | 460$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.8 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 209$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 62c | 193$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 188.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 69c | 150.32$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 139.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed Over | 21c | 121.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 50c | 112$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 42c | 110.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 63c | 110.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 50c | 103.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Over | 52c | 96.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Under | 51c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…f058backed Over | 71c | 71.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 29c | 63.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 50c | 63.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Over | 27c | 59.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…7b20backed Over | 52c | 48.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…55d7backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 22.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…4f34backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ARI vs. LV: O/U 41.5this page
- ARI vs. LV: O/U 39.5Over won
- ARI vs. LV: O/U 40.5Over won
- ARI vs. LV: O/U 42.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. RaidersCardinals won
- Cardinals vs. Raiders: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- Spread: LV (-1.5)ARI won
- Spread: LV (-2.5)ARI won
- Spread: LV (-3.5)ARI won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.