Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Idaho Vandals (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b4cd117ba6d5d7d16eab6d8913da0e47d9ce1c0a13d6d99cb955a07fa0a13ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Idaho Vandalsof Idaho Vandals, Idaho State Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Idaho Vandals | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Idaho State Bengals | 47c | 6,400$3,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,008 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Idaho State Bengals | 47c | 2,020$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.4 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Idaho State Bengals | 45c | 1,600$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.84 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Idaho State Bengals | 47c | 1,170$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.98 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Idaho State Bengals | 45c | 1,124$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.47 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Idaho Vandals | 55c | 546.6$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.6 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Idaho State Bengals | 47c | 403$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.41 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Idaho Vandals | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Idaho State Bengals | 46c | 198$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 172 | 41.3%71 W · 101 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf926…fb21backed Idaho State Bengals | 46c | 187$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Idaho State Bengals | 46c | 185.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Idaho State Bengals | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Idaho Vandals | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…7bb6backed Idaho Vandals | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed Idaho Vandals | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Idaho Vandals | 54c | 77.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Idaho Vandals | 55c | 39.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 233 | 63.9%149 W · 84 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9443backed Idaho State Bengals | 47c | 27.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Idaho Vandals | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732e…0b35backed Idaho Vandals | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-6.5)this page
- Idaho State Bengals vs. Idaho VandalsIdaho Vandals won
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-5.5)Idaho Vandals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.