Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Idaho State Bengals vs. Idaho Vandals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda38dc79045108c10ba12baee00baa8080c654c277967a61d10f0248e6007042
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Idaho Vandalsof Idaho State Bengals, Idaho Vandals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Idaho State Bengals | 27c | 26,023$7,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,026.19 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 11,834$8,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,195.26 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Idaho Vandals | 73c | 5,017$3,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.59 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Idaho Vandals | 73c | 3,827$2,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.36 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 1,705$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.35 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Idaho State Bengals | 3c | 1,552$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Idaho Vandals | 73c | 1,506$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.85 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d98…4d2dbacked Idaho Vandals | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Idaho State Bengals | 1c | 1,188$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Idaho State Bengals | 12c | 579.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Idaho State Bengals | 4c | 511$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Idaho Vandals | 71c | 499.99$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.13 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 484.99$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.12 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Idaho State Bengals | 7c | 483.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 371.23$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Idaho State Bengals | 27c | 277.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Idaho State Bengals | 31c | 256.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Idaho State Bengals | 32c | 248.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Idaho State Bengals | 11c | 206.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Idaho State Bengals | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Idaho State Bengals | 11c | 115.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Idaho State Bengals | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Idaho Vandals | 66c | 73.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Idaho State Bengals | 34c | 44.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 227 | 30.4%69 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Idaho State Bengals | 24c | 41.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 36.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 233 | 63.9%149 W · 84 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 35.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…d7dfbacked Idaho State Bengals | 30c | 33.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…5ee6backed Idaho Vandals | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Idaho Vandals | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Idaho Vandals | 73c | 25.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 23.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Idaho State Bengals vs. Idaho Vandalsthis page
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-5.5)Idaho Vandals won
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-6.5)Idaho Vandals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.