Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b4e0d1d152726137e868e650408a3cb17551617432700661abd40a50dbff4b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 475.8$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 322.64$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.71 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 46c | 304.34$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.51 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d54…2bc7backed Yes | 40c | 289.06$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…8cdebacked No | 64c | 262.34$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 61c | 259.29$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 53c | 194.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 64c | 156.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 140.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 37c | 129.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 39c | 124.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 116$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 114.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 114.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 53c | 99.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 59c | 91.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…8c59backed Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 68c | 88.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 86.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 77c | 85.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 83.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 80.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 14c | 79.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 65c | 76.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 46c | 75.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 54c | 69.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 32c | 62.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 58c | 54.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 27c | 51.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 33c | 50.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 58c | 46.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 35c | 42.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 38.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 31c | 35.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 39c | 33.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 33.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 32.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 38c | 32.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 32.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 55c | 31.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 29.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf147…df5cbacked No | 59c | 29.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 28.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 37c | 28.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed No | 78c | 28.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 67c | 27.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 70c | 27.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 67c | 26.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 43c | 25.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 24.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…bff5backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 66c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 72c | 20.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 62c | 17.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 68c | 16.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 16.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…49d5backed No | 79c | 12.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.