Serie A · resolved market
US Lecce vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b5d3b3bcc9011359d17f102d1b602d4d9024ff9b6c6c45299040f1bff0cd888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca1…dd13backed Over | 40c | 8,526$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 5,107$3,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.93 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 2,227$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.58 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 58c | 1,199$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.79 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Over | 31c | 988.47$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.28per pick | 64cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Under | 47c | 450$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 63c | 177.22$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Under | 62c | 112.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 59c | 110.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 56c | 67.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 63c | 57.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 52c | 38.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…f247backed Over | 55c | 22.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f1…e5a1backed Under | 62c | 18.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Lecce vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Torino FC (-1.5)US Lecce won
- US Lecce vs. Torino FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Lecce vs. Torino FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Lecce vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.