Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b858dac12ac5c45d657e8ad28d9e2c591814a16a56226deaa8c2df7dff85516
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 16c | 438.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…2949backed Yes | 58c | 339.79$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 197.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 20c | 127.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 116.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 109.72$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 38c | 101.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 61c | 86.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 48c | 75.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9441…cc2ebacked Yes | 68c | 73.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 68.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 65.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…e087backed Yes | 45c | 65.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 20c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 33c | 60.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 48c | 58.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 39c | 53.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 51c | 47.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 35c | 43.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes | 48c | 41.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 39c | 38.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 38.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 53c | 34.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 34.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 44c | 34.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 69c | 32.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…e9b4backed Yes | 43c | 31.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…5b9abacked Yes | 39c | 25.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 65c | 25.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 46c | 23.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 19.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 65c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 17.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 73c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…c24fbacked No | 60c | 16.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 77c | 13.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.