Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b8aa9e5eb6e08547e5ae2726fb0d0e1ba7a5f2a838591092d034a4d8bc188a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 46c | 1,716$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.01 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,380$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 15c | 249$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 49c | 191.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 40c | 141.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 138.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 103.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 28c | 89.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 49c | 86.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 76.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccf…8aa6backed Yes | 55c | 68.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 63c | 56.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 54.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 55c | 52.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…a222backed Yes | 47c | 48.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…10fdbacked No | 75c | 48.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +2,066.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…36f2backed Yes | 52c | 40.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 40.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 58c | 37.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 59c | 36.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 35.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 55c | 34.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 49c | 31.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 53c | 30.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 30.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcd…e43cbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 41c | 27.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 22.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 54c | 19.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.