South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-02-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b8d9c21c02d97c8bdafd23e60ef902f2c65952a7a5f7fd94fff05a916467391
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 4,367$3,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.65 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked Yes | 25c | 4,081$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +192.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 26c | 3,500$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 2,124$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.09 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed No | 74c | 1,675$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.57 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 24c | 1,250$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.61 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 74c | 1,210$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.69 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,098$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…0979backed Yes | 21c | 857.14$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed No | 75c | 813.82$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.46 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 25c | 804$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 633.78$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.95 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…a929backed Yes | 10c | 362.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Yes | 27c | 340.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 272.85$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Yes | 8c | 190.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 10c | 150.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed Yes | 10c | 115.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 108.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 108 | 80.6%87 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 73c | 106.12$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75c…86d0backed Yes | 25c | 98.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yes | 21c | 63.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 56.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 78c | 50.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-02-16?this page
- Will CD Riestra vs. CA Newell's Old Boys end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CD Riestra win on 2026-02-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.