Tennis · resolved market
Tommy Paul vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9c8f44f3938fb4bceea33590f57dd816007af48dad5ffa0aa5475a7e6817b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 6,650$2,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,657.75 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…67bcbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 6,488$3,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,565.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 5,173$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,773.19 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 2,757$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.09 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.09 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…9582backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 452$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…ca0ebacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 346.43$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f29…2814backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 341.67$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.67 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 285.71$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.5 | 50c | 215.37$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under 2.5 | 35c | 179$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 101 | 40.6%41 W · 60 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 39c | 97.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…8dc9backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa3…ac0fbacked Over 2.5 | 58c | 80.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5540…9c18backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 76.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2959…f256backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…7cffbacked Over 2.5 | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…409dbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…215fbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 33.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Under 2.5 | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tommy Paul vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Flavio CobolliFlavio Cobolli won
- Paul vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Paul vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Paul vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Paul vs CobolliPaul won
- Set 2 Winner: Paul vs CobolliCobolli won
- Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)Paul won
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5)Cobolli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.