Tennis · resolved market
Paul vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3aacf0e0fa5dfc29a31c72e0515cc4d7258bc90f1823cc9483bdfe9dae16946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 653.88$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.1 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 57c | 626.56$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.42 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 41c | 228.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 44c | 219.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf025…48f8backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Over | 57c | 140.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 45c | 106.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 101.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Over | 54c | 88.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 55c | 87.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Over | 58c | 50.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2914…aff6backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 46c | 35.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…fab5backed Over | 51c | 32.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paul vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 22.5this page
- Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Flavio CobolliFlavio Cobolli won
- Paul vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Paul vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Paul vs CobolliPaul won
- Set 2 Winner: Paul vs CobolliCobolli won
- Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)Paul won
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5)Cobolli won
- Tommy Paul vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.