UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bc2ad79ffaf9d57311b8bc4d3d15e8de7c0938e35e2bb2be760cc7c3e1e7343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Yes | 21c | 471.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 80c | 420$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 79c | 390$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Yes | 21c | 350$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 231.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 16c | 208.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…e9d4backed Yes | 28c | 188.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 80c | 141.4$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 43cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…01a8backed Yes | 18c | 121.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Yes | 14c | 109.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 79c | 100.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…aafcbacked No | 78c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 79c | 18.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 325: Mullarkey vs. Salkilld (Lightweight, Prelims)Salkilld won
- Will Jamie Mullarkey win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Quillan Salkilld win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.