UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x791dd4335ff8098fb4c9ad13a614bad996856a0a3405a77cefb9ed12c70f2739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 1,093$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.13 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 1c | 909.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 766$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.81 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 52c | 738.5$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.89 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Over | 50c | 690$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 53c | 677.77$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.33 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 57c | 606.82$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 43c | 600$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Over | 51c | 436.08$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Over | 45c | 289.18$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…2d72backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Over | 49c | 151.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 45c | 125.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Over | 48c | 99.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 97.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…e775backed Under | 55c | 91.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Over | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec71…70ebbacked Under | 55c | 78.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Over | 47c | 72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Over | 47c | 68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 54c | 65.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…7389backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Under | 55c | 54.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2e…3e5abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…00cdbacked Under | 55c | 34.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Under | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Under | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…059fbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 325: Mullarkey vs. Salkilld (Lightweight, Prelims)Salkilld won
- Will Jamie Mullarkey win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Quillan Salkilld win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.