TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9f39…059f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
16
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NHL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 53 out of 100; worst Other European Leagues at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.8
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Tuivasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.8
UFC 325: Finney vs. Malkoun (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Finney · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Prelims)backed Nakamura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+400%+$40
UFC 325: Lawrence Lui vs. Sulangrangbo (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)backed Sulangrangbo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$17.1
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+212.5%+$27.2
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$11.6
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+222.6%+$27.6
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked St. John's Red Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.26
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jackets vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+170.3%+$31.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$14.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-01-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$11.65
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.