Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bc57c55753fa1ecef0971df4a0e1935a47e45c99197dadd2000fe98956ade45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd377…a0a5backed Yes | 59c | 10,811$6,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,348.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 2c | 2,679$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,618.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +285.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 55c | 2,400$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 80c | 1,304$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.71 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 20c | 824.05$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.81 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 12c | 796$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 20c | 721.15$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked No | 3c | 652.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,150.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Yes | 6c | 605$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 17c | 602.72$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 26c | 600$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed No | 13c | 489.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.69 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Yes | 20c | 117.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 80c | 117.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 38cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 76c | 66.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-23?this page
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?No won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-08-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.