Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bdfd878a13516d96c22c68c1274eced83fde4862019c38ab59895d0b4f526ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 1,602$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.1 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 892.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.76 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 480.7$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 260.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 19c | 255.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 33c | 205.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 12c | 190.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 35c | 147.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 59c | 139.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…d4c3backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 99.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 66c | 96.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 36c | 83.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 18c | 82.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 16c | 77.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 75.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 71.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 18c | 69.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…031abacked Yes | 23c | 68.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 923 | 34.1%315 W · 608 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 22c | 49.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 288 | 45.1%130 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 59c | 48.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…1486backed No | 77c | 45.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 56c | 44.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6234…823ebacked No | 62c | 43.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 41c | 37.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 44c | 35.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 42c | 32.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 40c | 31.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba8…aeadbacked No | 71c | 26.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 76c | 25.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked No | 76c | 20.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.