Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d3a33a1630eadcb806239bf5df4892796b99bd255dd4a4258444cfcbfe7447a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 391.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 63c | 389$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.86 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 36c | 292.21$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 344 | 58.7%202 W · 142 L | +18.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 240.98$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 51c | 211.57$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.12 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 167$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 55c | 101.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 57c | 93.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 44c | 74.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 73.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 60.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 26c | 57.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 56.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 43c | 55.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 54c | 54.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 238 | 47.9%114 W · 124 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 36c | 54.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 47c | 49.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 33c | 36.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 68c | 36.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 333 | 66.4%221 W · 112 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…1486backed No | 60c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 33.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 32.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 31.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 36c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 75c | 27.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…0a1abacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 18.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 71c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed No | 73c | 15.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 76c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.