Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5be7c71ea9ea013842740d4944f4a9e0d16b19a70871ee44b2179287fcba8b84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 74c | 350.06$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 277.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 7c | 190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 189.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 183.43$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 13c | 128.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 122.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 91.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 87.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 85.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 72c | 76.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed Yes | 18c | 65.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…522bbacked Yes | 26c | 63.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 60.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 56.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 55.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 76c | 48.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 26c | 48.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 44.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 39.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 34c | 39.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 38.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 76c | 36.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 30.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 76c | 26.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 22.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed No | 75c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 19.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 79c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.