Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdab568e57fb3035846cf30676f552e37592a6ceef706513a933c1ba579b2d2af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 255$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.55 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 250$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 69c | 237.1$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 65c | 187.5$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.16 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 160.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 159.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 157.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 38c | 138.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 136.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 77c | 129.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 122.15$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 43c | 122.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed No | 39c | 120.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 119.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked Yes | 69c | 108.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 108.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 108$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 89.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 83.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 34c | 83.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 77c | 83.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 29c | 57.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 55.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 57c | 55.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 67c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 34c | 52.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 24c | 49.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 60c | 49.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 45.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 67c | 35.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 33.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 32.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 32.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 69c | 31.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 62c | 30.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 53c | 30.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 50c | 28.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 28.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 74c | 27.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 72c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…72bcbacked No | 80c | 27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 24.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 60c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 23.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 23.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 22.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 63c | 21.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 65c | 19.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 54c | 18.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 73c | 14.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.