Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ferencvarosi TC win on 2025-10-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bebe1ede7ba9d9deeec0eb88979ac50ff0b5a54bff4313aba6a20a93cf0c3cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked No | 54c | 3,289$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.91 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 43c | 3,151$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.78 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 23c | 3,050$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,334.31 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…edb3backed Yes | 46c | 2,245$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 76c | 1,445$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.82 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 78c | 1,111$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.58 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 34c | 672.35$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 77c | 666$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.82 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 77c | 655.83$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.27 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 40c | 548$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 77c | 500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 75c | 439.61$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed No | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Yes | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 22c | 275.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6595…edf9backed No | 78c | 270.97$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 20c | 261.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.58 | 133 | 27.8%37 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…1ec7backed Yes | 67c | 238.34$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…2accbacked Yes | 60c | 167.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 80c | 139$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa7…e577backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed No | 80c | 124.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 44c | 111.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…2fa3backed No | 80c | 111.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 20c | 97.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Yes | 64c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf89f…bd07backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 56c | 60.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…d198backed Yes | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…8edfbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked No | 74c | 24.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…d4e0backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ferencvarosi TC win on 2025-10-02?this page
- Will KRC Genk vs. Ferencvarosi TC end in a draw?No won
- Will KRC Genk win on 2025-10-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.