Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bfabfb685fdbd5374806c8d87a4a832b2d38e045f8bfa80cf083c583a4ca504
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 1,604$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 3c | 1,527$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 12c | 1,090$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.61 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 621.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 14c | 531.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 475.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.11 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 424.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3675…457ebacked Yes | 3c | 412.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 358.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 24c | 292.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 23c | 286.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 286.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 8c | 241.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…a1eabacked Yes | 22c | 228.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 19c | 209.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 74c | 203.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 21c | 200.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 19c | 195$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 193.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…2e16backed Yes | 22c | 186.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 7c | 181.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 11c | 159.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x594f…7f1abacked Yes | 22c | 159.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 152.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…e027backed Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 21c | 149.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 137.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 132.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 23c | 125.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 27c | 125.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 20c | 123.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 22c | 119.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 15c | 113.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 20c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 13c | 109.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 25c | 107.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 107.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 15c | 99.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 19c | 97.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 22c | 91.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 15c | 89.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 14c | 81.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 76.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 76c | 70.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 70.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 24c | 65.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 22c | 47.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…21f6backed No | 75c | 39.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 76c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 76c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6f…7cf5backed No | 76c | 19.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 79c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 76c | 18.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 77c | 17.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.