Asian League · resolved market
Fagiano Okayama vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c08a9d6dc424b9c60f105ee1c46a97fa3bc1bbffe47c440b7401a77b5bf76f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 79c | 1,251$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.73 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 707.59$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.96 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 66c | 599.99$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 35c | 543.14$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.25 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 443.54$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 21c | 339.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 38c | 249.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 48c | 201.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 283 | 32.5%92 W · 191 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 22c | 165.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 876 | 45.1%395 W · 481 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 35c | 109.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…3c89backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Under | 65c | 98.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 36c | 96.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 34c | 84.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 27c | 83.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 65c | 78.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 68c | 72.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 59c | 62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 66c | 59.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 34c | 57.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 35c | 54.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 40c | 47.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15c4…5e52backed Under | 73c | 45.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 43c | 45.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…acb3backed Under | 65c | 31.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 64c | 31.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +11.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Under | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 66c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5this page
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.