CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c0e879439147fefa8abe9c321c1bc848b7a06d5de421158a3895744ac29378f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof ECSTATIC, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,723 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5886…fe3bbacked ECSTATIC | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…66b9backed ECSTATIC | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ec…759fbacked ECSTATIC | 1c | 4,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed ECSTATIC | 1c | 4,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Ursa | 52c | 1,457$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.82 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed ECSTATIC | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 215 | 0.9%2 W · 213 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…f17ebacked ECSTATIC | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…3973backed ECSTATIC | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ECSTATIC | 20c | 932$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79e8…db51backed ECSTATIC | 59c | 880.04$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 54c | 827.9$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.23 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 30c | 659.78$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.98 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Ursa | 39c | 641$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.01 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde1f…d634backed Ursa | 72c | 556.98$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.98 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee0…f8f9backed ECSTATIC | 64c | 540$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…a23ebacked Ursa | 35c | 540$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed ECSTATIC | 61c | 525.3$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.66 | 151 | 42.4%64 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf76…db81backed ECSTATIC | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…81f2backed Ursa | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed ECSTATIC | 18c | 499.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 402 | 34.6%139 W · 263 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked ECSTATIC | 80c | 375$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 264 | 54.2%143 W · 121 L | -19.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed ECSTATIC | 45c | 297.83$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.6wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ursa | 45c | 296.66$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.97 | 2,456 | 44.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L | -67.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Ursa | 28c | 222$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…538dbacked ECSTATIC | 70c | 130.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Ursa | 65c | 121.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Ursa | 33c | 105.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 807 | 44.6%360 W · 447 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked ECSTATIC | 70c | 104.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ursa | 37c | 83.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 1,723 | 46.8%807 W · 916 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Ursa | 42c | 74.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 23c | 68.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked ECSTATIC | 79c | 62.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked ECSTATIC | 70c | 56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…ab0cbacked ECSTATIC | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Ursa | 35c | 43.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked ECSTATIC | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 193 | 52.3%101 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed ECSTATIC | 72c | 37.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed ECSTATIC | 34c | 34.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked ECSTATIC | 63c | 26.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed ECSTATIC | 66c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 PlayoffsUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: ECS (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5)Ursa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.