Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c147453860fdfc444a4bfc6914aa927d016f809cffa2ba446f209fc0860ecbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 51c | 772.64$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.09 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 44c | 435.23$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.21 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 77c | 294.76$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 52c | 202.27$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 56c | 194.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 42c | 178.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.26 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 16c | 176.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 166.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 163.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 63c | 111.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 56c | 89.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 57c | 88.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…09f3backed Yes | 42c | 84.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 77.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 75c | 66.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…c6c4backed Yes | 43c | 64.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 67c | 58.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…7353backed Yes | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 47c | 42.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 42.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 35c | 41.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 40.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 60c | 40.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…aba8backed Yes | 73c | 37.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 33.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 63c | 32.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c5…8511backed Yes | 48c | 30.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…9c82backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 56c | 30.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 40c | 27.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 65c | 24.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 54c | 22.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 53c | 20.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or higher on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -8°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.