Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or higher on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e4cf37bf963e83d59633e2420c7c0ed6bd2ad470a20aad5bfb2b6a86f521a06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 1,195$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 435.96$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 32c | 420.7$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.33 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 69c | 300.22$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 285.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 36c | 250.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 240.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 161.07$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 149.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 65c | 146.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 64c | 143.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 136.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 67c | 123.91$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 113.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked No | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 20c | 84.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…9c82backed Yes | 36c | 84.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 82.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 78.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 30c | 77.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 21c | 74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…4300backed No | 55c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 73.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed No | 70c | 70.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 34c | 63.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 39c | 61.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe273…e74bbacked No | 60c | 61.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 60.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 20c | 58.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 21c | 54.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 21c | 50.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 49.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…9f55backed Yes | 41c | 48.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…97efbacked No | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 59c | 42.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked No | 68c | 36.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc6…1a3ebacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Yes | 52c | 29.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 25.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed No | 73c | 24.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 66c | 22.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 53c | 20.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 74c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8b…20d0backed Yes | 67c | 16.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or higher on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -8°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.