South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-09-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5caa6961730f34037355a369c34c73f1c6abf15ea199efce4753bdd5538d4323
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 61c | 22,513$13,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,744.69 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 39c | 20,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,799.88 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Yes | 39c | 13,571$5,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,348.2 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 59c | 7,801$4,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,211.56 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 62c | 3,056$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.76 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…3c12backed Yes | 41c | 1,107$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 61c | 1,099$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.27 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 61c | 848.14$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.99 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 42c | 673.57$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 404 | 42.1%170 W · 234 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 58c | 559.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Yes | 49c | 537.15$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 526.09$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.67 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 39c | 507.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 61c | 426.54$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.35 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 41c | 207.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b0…eb65backed Yes | 41c | 146.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 61c | 144$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…55f5backed Yes | 37c | 75.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 35c | 50.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85a4…2489backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…cd73backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 41c | 36.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 59c | 36.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…cd54backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 65c | 25.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbb…1794backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-09-30?this page
- Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-09-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.