Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cc5163098e34b7a8e555661ed5dac9200dfb9f0b4bc154047f526aa17044014
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Yes | 51c | 13,983$7,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,131.49 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 47c | 9,175$4,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,861.92 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed No | 48c | 6,666$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,466.3 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 53c | 6,370$3,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,373.44 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Yes | 52c | 2,872$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 53c | 1,688$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.23 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 56c | 1,268$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.72 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 48c | 1,155$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.75 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 48c | 1,154$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.44 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 50c | 1,018$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.19 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 49c | 750$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked No | 48c | 701.51$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.51 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 46c | 478.4$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.02 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e89…2ad8backed Yes | 53c | 453$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 52c | 440.79$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.56 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 47c | 432.47$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.26 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked No | 53c | 405.66$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.66 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 52c | 359.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 55c | 347.86$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed No | 35c | 320$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 64c | 274.79$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.27 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed No | 46c | 205.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 51c | 165.2$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…d65ebacked No | 47c | 152$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…2831backed No | 47c | 151$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e1…8594backed No | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 35c | 126.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52de…03b8backed Yes | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…1093backed Yes | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1b…adcdbacked No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2570…94f8backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked No | 50c | 100.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 78c | 96.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 51c | 90.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 52c | 90.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…3b6bbacked No | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…acc5backed No | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 48c | 69.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 54c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…79c4backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…38e6backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5962…2446backed Yes | 54c | 40.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5263…52ccbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…4201backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf47e…5031backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 48c | 34.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 48c | 34.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed No | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…3462backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2341…618fbacked Yes | 52c | 22.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-01?this page
- Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.