Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd403f2112d5beb29f82838d44b9e0da50fcd53b3cd6e64ba72b9eef428da5ee0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 10,043$7,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,497.94 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…edb3backed Yes | 25c | 7,406$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 19c | 4,772$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.49 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,987$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…aad2backed Yes | 27c | 1,723$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…55acbacked Yes | 23c | 873.17$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…1335backed Yes | 14c | 531.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 77c | 443.99$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 74c | 443.67$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.57 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 25c | 403.76$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 26c | 384.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…6b55backed Yes | 27c | 363.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e5…bff4backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…1bc2backed Yes | 28c | 357$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…f9c8backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 22c | 272.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 23c | 251$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 26c | 247$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 26c | 231.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 24c | 192.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 25c | 153.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 74c | 151.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 16c | 147.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 23c | 146$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f7…f12bbacked No | 77c | 136$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 74c | 134.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…5473backed Yes | 26c | 132.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 72c | 122.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9baf…bd11backed Yes | 23c | 111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…920cbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…ed14backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 41cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b65…5dd2backed Yes | 25c | 80.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6a…2632backed Yes | 26c | 78.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x867a…30ffbacked Yes | 27c | 73.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb8…450dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…3462backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…0c17backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…6240backed Yes | 27c | 55.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…242dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +64%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd930…2787backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +71%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 73c | 38.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d84…e3acbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 72c | 14.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-01?this page
- Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.