Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Tiafoe
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cdca09f6233a36eaca1a329fd8e83fa3033dbe3c392150e21020fde66bf0db1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Tien, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Tien | 32c | 1,194$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.48 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tiafoe | 72c | 1,007$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.86 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Tien | 32c | 621.96$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.56 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Tiafoe | 69c | 605.34$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…10b1backed Tiafoe | 50c | 216.08$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tien | 50c | 211.08$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.54 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5f…555ebacked Tiafoe | 47c | 170.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Tien | 53c | 163.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 195 | 37.4%73 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tiafoe | 66c | 154$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Tiafoe | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…1e9fbacked Tien | 30c | 132.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Tien | 54c | 79.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tiafoe | 46c | 79.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Tiafoe | 70c | 72.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Tien | 31c | 50.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Tien | 51c | 32.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Tiafoe | 49c | 30.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Tiafoethis page
- Cincinnati Open: Completed Match: Learner Tien vs Frances TiafoeYes won
- Cincinnati Open: Learner Tien vs Frances TiafoeFrances Tiafoe won
- Set 2 Winner: Tien vs TiafoeTien won
- Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)Tiafoe won
- Tien vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.