Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cdd8be97407120c28e756e2cfdbd18d939400f07e13e3642cd477b91d138bdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 75c | 546$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 493.65$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.32 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Yes | 23c | 299.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…a471backed Yes | 30c | 245$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 244.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 74c | 173.86$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 28c | 102.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…3308backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 27c | 91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b4…0512backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 42.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7174…bf43backed Yes | 29c | 36.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 73c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-11-08?Yes won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-11-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.