Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-11-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb254294208fa5745768e898ffb6807ad34d56bb3aa7111f3997d3cd052a0823
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 41c | 20,000$8,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,800 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 59c | 15,222$8,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,980.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed No | 43c | 6,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 5,935$3,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,062.34 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 60c | 2,023$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.78 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 61c | 1,125$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.49 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Yes | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 57c | 604.24$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 40c | 280$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 62c | 277.42$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.42 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 39c | 257.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.34 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 8c | 257.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 25c | 252.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Yes | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 49c | 202.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…615cbacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Yes | 63c | 160$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6f…084bbacked Yes | 64c | 153.13$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 78c | 108.36$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…2d58backed Yes | 62c | 80.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked No | 56c | 68.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 76c | 67.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec0…82ddbacked Yes | 60c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +155.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…2fadbacked Yes | 61c | 36.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yes | 54c | 34.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 61c | 34.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…d81fbacked No | 61c | 34.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2149…3a74backed No | 39c | 33.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…c5d8backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…56bfbacked Yes | 63c | 30.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 51c | 25.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7174…bf43backed No | 61c | 17.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-11-08?this page
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-11-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.