Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-11-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6df5868da38fb2c81ef36fbd3afc3539c43c51b263e1dc8e32f245452ce8fbc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 76c | 870.91$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.97 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…6438backed Yes | 14c | 783.11$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…3308backed Yes | 33c | 604.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 32c | 534.31$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.35 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Yes | 33c | 284.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 223.2$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…8d20backed Yes | 14c | 168.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 17c | 152.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 69c | 145.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 124.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 31c | 120.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8279…7edcbacked Yes | 26c | 114.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…d139backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked No | 70c | 22.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7174…bf43backed No | 68c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-11-08?this page
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-11-08?Yes won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.