College Football · resolved market
Spread: Indiana (-29.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce033e2cd7c428b1d431bbb994ec8c7ca408ba2afd8974fcf91e198155b1919
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wisconsin Badgersof Indiana, Wisconsin Badgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Indiana | 49c | 26,881$13,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,273 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,200 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 13,023$6,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,478.9 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 9,443$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,442.52 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Indiana | 47c | 7,869$3,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,696.57 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Indiana | 48c | 5,902$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,832.99 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Indiana | 47c | 1,309$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.44 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Indiana | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Indiana | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Indiana | 47c | 848.5$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.79 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 755$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.85 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Indiana | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 393.57$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.86 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Indiana | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc557…e530backed Wisconsin Badgers | 54c | 178.06$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Indiana | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Indiana | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…8056backed Indiana | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana (-29.5)this page
- O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana (-28.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Indiana (-30.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. IndianaIndiana won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Indiana: O/U 43.5Under won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Indiana: O/U 44.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.