Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cf8d7d3d3151f1dc0739bdbd1800380d491613a19c7878b3c86e5c41d15af34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 20c | 416.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 397.87$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 21c | 293.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 291.64$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.83 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 10c | 225$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 174.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 18c | 145.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 39c | 134.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 78c | 127.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 80c | 115$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 113.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 59c | 105.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 75c | 93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 14c | 92.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 45c | 91.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 80.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 57c | 77.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 67c | 69.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 62.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…adf9backed Yes | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 43c | 57.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 76c | 55.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 67c | 43.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 42.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 76c | 39.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 38.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…9fe1backed Yes | 31c | 32.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x585a…26ecbacked Yes | 31c | 32.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 34c | 32.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 42c | 26.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 65c | 23.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 67c | 22.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…c003backed No | 63c | 19.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…4532backed No | 55c | 18.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 17.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.