Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d01ebad37a1192b4f46183899701788f161349da1c5d158b3d2b62bc3d8f64a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc56d…c484backed Under | 78c | 2,008$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 29c | 994.97$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.54 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 580.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 15c | 307.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 172 | 18.6%32 W · 140 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 13c | 231.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 15c | 217.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 15c | 138.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +42.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 14c | 133.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 15c | 130.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51d8…d8a7backed Over | 23c | 123.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 55 | 78.2%43 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5this page
- Mexico vs. Ghana: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Ghana (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Mexico won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.