Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfff5df9705c323087519e3f939c7534bf1625f8a8f6a91a1e37f911f3ccb203a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mexicoof Mexico, Ghana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Mexico | 42c | 429.97$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.38 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2952…97b0backed Mexico | 50c | 412.25$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Ghana | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 205 | 47.3%97 W · 108 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Ghana | 41c | 318$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.79 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Mexico | 64c | 262.82$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Ghana | 58c | 214.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Ghana | 58c | 214.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Ghana | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 246 | 49.2%121 W · 125 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Mexico | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 551 | 53%292 W · 259 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Mexico | 51c | 145.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 131 | 59.5%78 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Mexico | 59c | 137.49$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ghana | 40c | 74.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…5bedbacked Mexico | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mexico | 78c | 61.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mexico | 47c | 60.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 597 | 52.1%311 W · 286 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Mexico | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Ghana | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Mexico | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 311 | 47.9%149 W · 162 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Ghana | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ead…25c9backed Ghana | 50c | 39.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…b04fbacked Mexico | 52c | 39.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…0665backed Mexico | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Mexico | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 160 | 40.6%65 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Ghana | 51c | 34.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Ghana | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf24…a5f3backed Mexico | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Ghana | 49c | 24.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Ghana | 49c | 23.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Ghana | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7983…c138backed Mexico | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)this page
- Mexico vs. Ghana: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Ghana (-1.5)Mexico won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.