Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Samford Bulldogs vs. Mercer Bears: O/U 154.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d02eb88d86c68b85fcb016cda21e0f7319e32bbf1dc5d39d2602b8cc066da4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 46c | 16,550$7,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,588.64 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 8,411$4,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,849.05 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Over | 54c | 3,688$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.49 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 54c | 3,314$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.41 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 28c | 762.81$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.64 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Over | 54c | 670.05$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.22 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 54c | 361.83$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.44 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 72c | 301.56$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 48c | 233.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 71c | 148.92$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 52c | 148.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 71c | 116.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 54c | 99.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96c…733cbacked Under | 47c | 51.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 52c | 49.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 52c | 38.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 71c | 32.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Over | 78c | 31.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 54c | 26.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Samford Bulldogs vs. Mercer Bears: O/U 154.5this page
- Samford Bulldogs vs. Mercer BearsMercer Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.