Tennis · resolved market
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d12bdad1af428f16e692ceff2770bfe0acf9436a245d23c28e92ef7b3b8a87d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over 2.5 | 54c | 699.95$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.98 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 385.93$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.91 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under 2.5 | 10c | 330.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…5d86backed Over 2.5 | 37c | 275.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 228.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.49 | 481 | 44.5%214 W · 267 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 210.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.71 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under 2.5 | 46c | 169.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Under 2.5 | 60c | 167.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 242 | 59.9%145 W · 97 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over 2.5 | 78c | 156.55$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over 2.5 | 40c | 142.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Under 2.5 | 46c | 125.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Under 2.5 | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over 2.5 | 55c | 89.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under 2.5 | 46c | 89.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under 2.5 | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under 2.5 | 46c | 71.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cb…fbe2backed Under 2.5 | 21c | 54.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 45.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Under 2.5 | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c0…a75abacked Over 2.5 | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 2.5 | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica PegulaJessica Pegula won
- Sabalenka vs. Pegula: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Pegula: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs PegulaPegula won
- Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs PegulaSabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)Pegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.