Fifa International · resolved market
Will Moldova win on 2026-03-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d62047fe1ff5ca2fb30ffa4044c6e9c5eee6dc23ff2d86df34e1b1afafdefea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb8c…6a99backed Yes | 3c | 8,736$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,480$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…cec1backed Yes | 0c | 5,059$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Yes | 18c | 2,005$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.75 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b46…8438backed Yes | 17c | 1,330$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.57 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,232$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.05 | 79 | 24.1%19 W · 60 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…dbfdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,209$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…82a5backed Yes | 19c | 1,050$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…3abbbacked Yes | 19c | 771.31$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Yes | 18c | 706$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.85 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 77c | 633$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.59 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…40d3backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 17c | 377.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Yes | 4c | 376.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa92…15f4backed Yes | 17c | 299.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Yes | 20c | 284.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 23c | 243.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…4d66backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 16c | 210.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…6578backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 80c | 155$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Yes | 16c | 143.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…bd81backed Yes | 20c | 131.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 23c | 126$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80fe…f7adbacked Yes | 10c | 108.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…bd0abacked Yes | 19c | 105.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6d…6b36backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447e…ba40backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…26dfbacked Yes | 17c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 20c | 70.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 78c | 58.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa7…c3b5backed No | 79c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 21.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moldova win on 2026-03-30?this page
- Will Cyprus vs. Moldova end in a draw?No won
- Will Cyprus win on 2026-03-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.