NBA · resolved market
May 14 NBA Parlay: Celtics and Timberwolves both win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d6380142fa3ccfce8ef7a4591937c0fd009f6b0ad9385e6442a55fd5bc2fa76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 50c | 6,846$3,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,402.73 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 6c | 5,619$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.18 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…aaddbacked No | 49c | 4,932$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.66 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6577…2660backed No | 51c | 2,382$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +579.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 51c | 2,186$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.27 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 49c | 790.42$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.46 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2669…f8eebacked No | 48c | 430$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 51c | 415.21$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.56 | 368 | 43.8%161 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…c074backed No | 48c | 415$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked No | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…d7debacked Yes | 52c | 385$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8c…a4ecbacked Yes | 52c | 385$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2e…92b1backed Yes | 52c | 380$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…dc3bbacked Yes | 52c | 235$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd616…1106backed No | 49c | 180.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 25c | 149.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a5…9f24backed No | 48c | 145$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…aa8dbacked No | 48c | 145$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 143.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 47c | 114.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 173 | 35.8%62 W · 111 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b8…2d83backed No | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 48cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92d5…a491backed No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 47c | 42.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x575e…5b86backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x600a…2853backed Yes | 53c | 34.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…61c7backed No | 49c | 33.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…c7c8backed No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…4350backed No | 49c | 30.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…f148backed Yes | 53c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…5b64backed No | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed No | 47c | 23.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1450…4589backed No | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 74c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Yes | 75c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.