Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d7c8cb3092073494474766a75c9d30932629a6cdaa327950b5896132fce86c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 808.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.53 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 3c | 578.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.74 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 9c | 558.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.31 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 322.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 33c | 212.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 200.33$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 180.51$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 11c | 138.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 124.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 106$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 64c | 78.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed No | 69c | 54.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 39c | 49.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…f36fbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 80c | 20.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 65c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.