Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a2f58155d524d28b8f21c81cec4e1c55fea2c3a38146a31f42712e8c6d48db5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 9c | 991.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.73 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 66c | 485.57$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.49 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 13c | 403.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 402.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 400$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 7c | 357.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.98 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 12c | 356.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.06 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 8c | 347.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.37 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 57c | 270.03$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.51 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 20c | 266.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 262$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 19c | 240.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.11 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13d…6928backed Yes | 76c | 204.62$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 9c | 202.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.06 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 12c | 174.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.21 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 15c | 169$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.46 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 40c | 111$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 48c | 86.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 52c | 80.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 14c | 70$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 28c | 66.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee5…ec3dbacked Yes | 80c | 55.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…c14bbacked Yes | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 47c | 51.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 77c | 37.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…4af5backed Yes | 59c | 21.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 57c | 19.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 72c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 7?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.