Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d81c0d4e0f7352733080c1282e013ccd463903972cd50b50e0a11857c406d62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 1,511$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.76 | 6,028 | 46.1%2,778 W · 3,250 L | +50.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 75c | 856.77$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.64 | 870 | 43%374 W · 496 L | +24.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 62c | 480.35$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.08 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 34c | 469.87$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.65 | 2,612 | 37.8%988 W · 1,624 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 77c | 306$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 298.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 1,804 | 36.6%660 W · 1,144 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e93…80d6backed No | 64c | 156.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 27c | 145$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 311 | 24.8%77 W · 234 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 21c | 115.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed No | 80c | 90.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e40…56c1backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 53.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,575 | 35.2%554 W · 1,021 L | -36.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 50.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1,882 | 50%941 W · 941 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Yes | 27c | 48.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 93 | 14%13 W · 80 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 25c | 47.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 337 | 48.1%162 W · 175 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 27c | 45.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 890 | 38.1%339 W · 551 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 26c | 39.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 375 | 53.6%201 W · 174 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 70c | 31.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 273 | 37%101 W · 172 L | -19.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…358bbacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 78c | 20.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 858 | 47.8%410 W · 448 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 16.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 841 | 53.6%451 W · 390 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-08-23?Yes won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-08-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.