Tennis · resolved market
Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d85f23c8bc420659db5d30d8362a33bebaa52168e257673f31d8c81ffa05d31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 60c | 8,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.77 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Under | 40c | 2,680$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d29…0206backed Over | 69c | 2,000$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Over | 61c | 1,908$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.63 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 39c | 1,805$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.9 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Under | 40c | 1,525$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.39 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Under | 40c | 1,399$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.49 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under | 39c | 852.94$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.58 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed Under | 40c | 691$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 30c | 621$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.7 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Under | 40c | 537$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.2 | 277 | 53.4%148 W · 129 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 380.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.79 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Over | 62c | 309.24$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.83 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Under | 40c | 284.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.55 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 43c | 175.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…0be8backed Under | 40c | 175.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Under | 57c | 172.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 39c | 171.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…fe26backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Over | 57c | 141.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Over | 61c | 133.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…8d7dbacked Under | 40c | 101.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4de…672abacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Over | 61c | 97.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 39c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 61c | 45.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 61c | 45.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…4c9abacked Over | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…0b3bbacked Over | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Over | 62c | 30.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 41c | 26.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Over | 61c | 22.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc572…fc7ebacked Over | 61c | 19.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5this page
- Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances TiafoeFrances Tiafoe won
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs TiafoeTiafoe won
- Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs TiafoeTiafoe won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)Tiafoe won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.