Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37112979e739ec2675003d0429a64ace0e3213edf7ce4ed9122b7d03578f0b67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Fritz, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Fritz | 45c | 55,088$24,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,550 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Tiafoe | 55c | 31,173$17,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,027.85 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Tiafoe | 56c | 23,000$12,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,119.99 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tiafoe | 56c | 1,062$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.63 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x512a…d537backed Fritz | 39c | 997.79$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.99 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…f8d0backed Tiafoe | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d79…8935backed Tiafoe | 54c | 499.98$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Tiafoe | 58c | 453.63$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.1 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Fritz | 39c | 377.07$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.36 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Tiafoe | 61c | 329.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.51 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1350…7169backed Tiafoe | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Fritz | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Tiafoe | 59c | 296.61$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Fritz | 39c | 239.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ac…b964backed Tiafoe | 54c | 189.13$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…3273backed Fritz | 45c | 157.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Fritz | 43c | 150.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…0436backed Tiafoe | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…3378backed Fritz | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…03e5backed Fritz | 43c | 97.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tiafoe | 71c | 79.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Tiafoe | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…ba30backed Tiafoe | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Tiafoe | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 285 | 57.9%165 W · 120 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2e…9d98backed Tiafoe | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Fritz | 46c | 69.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Fritz | 40c | 65.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Fritz | 46c | 58.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44be…76b1backed Fritz | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Tiafoe | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Fritz | 49c | 42.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Tiafoe | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Fritz | 41c | 27.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Tiafoe | 56c | 24.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…32e0backed Fritz | 49c | 22.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de2…cd3fbacked Tiafoe | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Tiafoe | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)this page
- Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances TiafoeFrances Tiafoe won
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs TiafoeTiafoe won
- Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs TiafoeTiafoe won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.