College Football · resolved market
New Mexico vs. Boise State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5db8dae04ae9f18cef92388144b5cfad0c76d501b48f403fb22f01a5645caccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boise Stateof New Mexico, Boise State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked New Mexico | 19c | 88,757$16,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,661.36 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Boise State | 79c | 23,336$18,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,981.13 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…7d00backed New Mexico | 1c | 8,985$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.21 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked New Mexico | 14c | 7,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.99 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed New Mexico | 14c | 5,775$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.5 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed Boise State | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd41…127dbacked New Mexico | 20c | 4,663$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16aa…d710backed New Mexico | 17c | 1,486$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed New Mexico | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed New Mexico | 1c | 1,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico | 13c | 1,114$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.82 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked New Mexico | 14c | 1,100$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.6 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed New Mexico | 20c | 848$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Boise State | 79c | 527.91$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.41 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked New Mexico | 23c | 420.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked New Mexico | 14c | 362$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed New Mexico | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…f264backed New Mexico | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed New Mexico | 4c | 330.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked New Mexico | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked New Mexico | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186f…8c40backed New Mexico | 8c | 180.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed New Mexico | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980d…985fbacked New Mexico | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed New Mexico | 21c | 123.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed New Mexico | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked New Mexico | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…faa8backed New Mexico | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed New Mexico | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed New Mexico | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed New Mexico | 15c | 70.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New Mexico vs. Boise Statethis page
- New Mexico vs. Boise State: O/U 58.5Over won
- New Mexico vs. Boise State: O/U 59.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.